Research projects

Long-term societal megatrends such as demographic change or climate change influence urban and spatial development as well as short-term crises. Since 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has also directly and indirectly influenced the migration and residential location decisions of households and thus had an impact on urban and spatial development. Particularly at the beginning of the pandemic, Germany's migration surplus compared to other countries has decreased significantly. Together with other short-term effects such as a lack of in-migration of students, this meant that many major cities in Germany did not continue to grow in 2020, contrary to the long-term trend. These effects will presumably only be of a short-term nature and have already weakened in 2021 and 2022.

Existing research suggests that digitalisation and the boom in working from home, which has been further fuelled by the pandemic, will increase demand for housing in urban areas and possibly even in rural areas. This could help to relieve tight metropolitan housing markets in North Rhine-Westphalia. Or, according to another line of argument, this relief effect could be more than "distorted" by an increased demand for living space per capita as a result of the trend towards working from home, even in the major cities.

The project centres on the question of what influence the corona pandemic will have on the location decisions of households in the medium and long term and how this will affect trends in urban and spatial development as well as the demand for and need for (affordable) housing in urban regions. The study focusses on cities and municipalities in North Rhine-Westphalia. Based on a comprehensive literature analysis and around 20 qualitative expert interviews in two case study regions (Bonn and Bielefeld and the surrounding areas), the effects of the pandemic on the housing and property markets are summarised and analytical conclusions are drawn for urban development and housing policy in North Rhine-Westphalia.

Publications

Münter, Angelika; Garde, Lisa; in der Beck, Lea; Osterhage, Frank (2023): Wohnen in Krisenzeiten – Wirkungen der Covid-19-Pandemie und der Energiekrise auf Wohnpräferenzen und Wohnstandortentscheidungen. In: Raumforschung und Raumordnung | Spatial Research and Planning, online first September 21, 2023. https://doi.org/10.14512/rur.1728.

Münter, Angelika; Garde, Lisa; Osterhage, Frank (2022): Wohnen nach Corona. Einflüsse der Pandemie auf Wohnstandortentscheidungen. ILS-IMPULSE 02/22. Dortmund.